FRAGMENTED OPPOSITION AND THE ILLUSION OF ELECTORAL STRENGTH
Few individuals are as capable of self-deception as politicians, especially those seeking elective position. Or how do you explain a candidate who cannot muster a modest crowd across the 36 states of the country expecting to win a presidential election. What about the ones who interpret the massive support from their core base as proof of nationwide backing. Interestingly, their die-hard supporters buy into the optimism.
There have been intense conversations about the opposition unseating the ruling APC in the 2027 election. However, with one of the key political figures walking out of the ADC coalition, it appears the Nigerian opposition is trapped in self-defeating rivalry. In a political system where presidential victory anchors heavily on nationwide alliances and strategic coordination, fragmentation within the opposition may prove to be its greatest barrier to power.
In the build-up to the 2023 presidential election, I wrote about Peter Obi's electoral equation not adding up. The truth is that it is still not adding up. While the Obidients, as Obi’s supporters are known, like to boast about the 6 million votes he garnered in his first shot at presidency, they often forget that Obi failed to meet the constitutional requirement of 25% of total votes cast in two-third of the states. He met the condition in 16 states and the FCT. He needed 24 states!
In that same 2023 election, Atiku Abubakar achieved the 25% requirements in 21 states. He scaled the constitutional hurdle in at least 17 of the 19 northern states, achieving spread, though yet short of 3 states to meet the constitutional requirement. The simple arithmetic of election victory requires that both Atiku and Obi work together to make stronger impact in the 2027 presidential election. That opportunity is gone!
I must say that the import of a fragmented opposition is not completely lost on Team Atiku Abubakar. They bemoaned the loss of Obi and his bloc votes. Atiku desperately needed the states won by Peter Obi in 2023. With Obi on the same ticket with Atiku, the ADC was going to score 25% in all the five southeast states and majority of the south-south states. They would probably be flying to victory.
But the Obidients would not have anything less than Peter Obi throwing his hat into the ring. Unlike the Atiku’s camp, they are doing too little math, rather banking on their principal’s 2023 electiral form and intense youth enthusiasm in some urban areas and on the social media.
Peter Obi now has the NDC platform solely to himself, but his candidacy remains challenged by what I call numbers problem. If you ask the Obidients the difference between 2023 and 2027, they will likely point to the alliance with Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso. But Kwankwaso, a candidate in the 2023 election, achieved 25% in only Kano State! Yes, Kano will impact the total votes, but that might not be enough to alter the electoral map.
If Kwankwaso did not make impact in the North as a presidential candidate, what is the chance that he would attract northern votes as a Vice? The fact should not be lost on any political observer that Atiku and Tinubu who took those votes in 2023 are yet going to be on the ballot. If the northerners won’t give their votes to Tunumbu this time around, as some are threatening, it will not be because they intend to be a Vice to another southerner. They would be going for the number one position.
Let me break the arithmetic down; first for Peter Obi. Without trading in self-deception, he should be working with only twelve southern states, discountenancing the southwest except Lagos. Aside the Tinubu factor, Obi currently has no structure to win 25% of votes in Ekiti, Ogun, Ondo, Osun, and Oyo. That leaves him with the task of achieving 25% of votes in 12 northern states if he must meet the 24 states target. If he keeps Benue, Plateau, Nasarawa, Abuja, where he performed excellently well in 2023, and add Kano, he will still have to win 25% in other seven northern states.
Which seven northern states are likely to give Peter Obi 25% votes? Kwara, Kogi, Niger in the North-Central? Sokoto, Kebbi, Zamfara, Jigawa, Kaduna, Katsina in the Northwest? Borno, Yobe, Bauchi, Gombe, Adamawa, Taraba in the Northeast? To stand a chance in 2027, Obi must practically relocate to the North in the remaining few months to the election. The missing number in his presidential equation lies in the North.
As for Atiku Abubakar, in his last attempt he gained 25% of the votes cast in some four southern states. He even won in three. This time around, the chance of him mounting serious challenge in the south is very slim. The PDP structure he used then is currently battered and in no position to mobilise votes. Even when most of their members have migrated to the ADC, the sentiment of the south spending eight years in the presidency would deny Atiku of votes.
Atiku might meet the 25% condition in the 19 northern states. Even at then, he needs additional five states in the south to get his presidential arithmetic right. Which five southern states are giving him 25%, with both President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Peter Obi on the ballot? The math is definitely not matching!
For Peter Obi, in particular, it appears he is chasing power with faulty calculations. The everyday anger of Nigerians does not seriously impact election outcomes. The prices of rice and gari rarely influence their choice of leaders. Nigerians rain curses on their elected representatives but still go ahead to vote them on election day. Identity questions – religion and ethnicity – are yet veritable determinants of the choices voters make. The 2027 presidential election won’t be particularly different!
On a lighter note, before Peter Obi parted way with the Atiku-led coalition, their supporters never failed to remind whoever cared to listen how the 2027 election would be a contest between Nigerians and the ruling APC. Now that the two leaders are approaching the election as distinct opposition, it will be interesting to see how two factions of “Nigerians” will fare against the APC.
The math of winning a presidential election is not just about getting the highest number of votes nationwide. The constitution requires both numerical majority and geographical spread. That would not have been a source of worry if Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi are on the same ticket. But votes are not wishes, and the opposition parties particularly need reality check to know their true strength. When they work at cross-purpose, power remains where it is.
Jide Ololajulo writes from Abuja and can be reached on babjid74@yahoo.com
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