REBASED GDP: SEPARATING FACTS FROM FICTION
By Sunday Dare
The recently rebased Gross Domestic Product (GDP) or National Output of the Nigerian Economy comes in at a time such critical insight and numbers are necessary for planning and global economic engagements.
We offer some important facts about Nigeria's rebased GDP towards correcting the fiction being shared and the doubts being created in some quarters. Only a factual account will suffice — and we will indulge politically motivated critics this once.
FACT 1: GDP REBASING IS AN ECONOMIC AND ACCOUNTING NECESSITY, NOT A GIMMICK
The rebasing of Nigeria’s GDP by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) aligns with international best practices. Nigeria's last rebasing exercise was in year 2014 during the administration of former President Goodluck Jonathan. This is not exactly an All Progressives Congress party's invention. Countries rebase to capture new sectors and shifting economic realities.
The current exercise is remarkably conservative and conforms with the highest international standards. Rebasing of the GDP and Consumer Price Index are accounting necessities, even though they were done after 11 years and after 6 years from when they should have been done, according to advisory by multilateral agencies.
Nigeria’s new GDP (2025) is now estimated at N372.8 trillion in 2024, based on the new base year of 2019 — marking a 41.7% increase from ₦314.02 trillion in 2023 .
In USD terms, this equates to $243 billion, using the prevailing exchange rate of around ₦1,530/$1.
Real GDP growth: Q1 2025 grew by 3.13% YoY, up from 2.27% in Q1 2024.
The debt-to-GDP ratio has declined to approximately 39.4%, down from approximately 52% pre-rebasing.
Nigeria remains the 4th largest economy in Africa, trailing South Africa, Egypt, and Algeria.
This provides clarity. We aver that no serious government runs blind on outdated economic baselines as such practices could lead to misallocation of resources.
FACT 2: DEBT-TO-GDP RATIO IS NOW MORE REALISTIC
Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP ratio after rebasing dropped from 52% to approximately 39.4%% is far below our peers:
Egypt: 93%
South Africa: 76%
Ghana: 67%
When it comes to borrowing, we must differentiate between solvency, liquidity, and fiscal management. Even with rebased figures, Nigeria remains one of Africa’s least-indebted large economies relative to GDP.
FACT 3: PRESIDENT TINUBU’S ADMINISTRATION IS DELIVERING HARD, MEASURABLE REFORMS AND RESULTS
The Tinubu government is fixing decades of neglect with bold, necessary reforms:
Petrol Subsidy Removal (saving over N7 trillion annually to redirect into infrastructure and social investment)
FX Unification & Market Reforms: Restored credibility with IFIs, stabilized forex volatility.
Revenue Growth: FAAC allocations hit a record N1.9 trillion monthly in 2024.
Customs revenue surged by +70% in 2024 due to aggressive reforms.
FIRS recorded a revenue of N21.6 trillion in 2024, the highest in recent history.
Under President Tinubu Nigeria’s Capital Market continues to surge. Nigeria’s All Share index (ASI) has recorded 136% growth in 2 years. As at May 29, 2023 it was 55,769 points. But as at July 22, 2025 it rose to 131,856 points. In the same vein, market capitalization has ballooned from N28.8 trillion to N75 Trillion in the same period – a growth of 160%.
On the back of the reforms, Moody’s and Fitch revised Nigeria’s outlook upwards to “Stable."
Infrastructure Delivery:
Lagos-Calabar Coastal Road underway (first in 40 years).
Sokoto - Badagry Road ongoing after it was abandoned 41 years ago.
Port Harcourt-Maiduguri rail revival.
The economy is expanding and creating more opportunities for Nigerians with real estate overtaking the oil sector per the rebased GDP. The service sector has also seen a significant boost as a major economic driver.
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